Land of Lincoln & Other Thoughts

First, I'm encouraged by polls showing strong support for Romney in  Illinois.  Illinois is close to my heart, as I lived there for several years, my son, Sam, was born there, and it nearly became our permanent family home.  They are saying that the urban and suburban areas having the strongest support for Romney, which is a pattern we've seen.  But I'm very hopefully that rural Illinois will turn out for Mitt as well.

A strong win by Romney would go a long way toward being able to get the momentum needed to earn the delegates needed to win the nomination.

One other interesting note: people (media, Santorum campaign, etc.) have  been suggesting that if Newt Gingrich dropped out of the race that his support would go to Santorum and create a more even match against Romney.  Well, apparently not.  In this poll, when Gingrich supporters were asked who they would vote for if Gingrich dropped out, Romney edged out Santorum among these voters.

Over 500...

Thank you, Puerto Rico!  22 of the territory's 23 delegates go to Mitt, which the way this contest has gone is a big deal.  That puts Romney - according to CNN's estimates, up to 518.  552 is the halfway mark to win the nomination, so we're getting close.  Illinois looms large on Tuesday.

Missouri and Puerto Rico...

Two contests coming up this weekend.  They are all important at this point.  Missouri holds county caucus meetings on Saturday.  In theory, Santorum holds advantages there with Midwest evangelicals being reluctant still to support Romney, but I know many good Missourians and the Romney campaign itself have been working very hard to change that.

What I hope voters in the Midwest and the South will understand is how important it would be for Republican efforts to defeat Obama and overturn Obamacare and pull us back from the brink of financial disaster, for them to give Romney victories.  There's no question Romney has been the best and most successful candidate to this point...but what would really allow Republicans to come together and united against Obama is a real show of support for Romney in these important regions of the country.

As important as Missouri is, Puerto Rico also has great significance for a couple of reasons.  First, of course, is delegates.  At the end of the day, Romney is the one who is in a position to get enough delegates to win the nomination; the question is: how soon can he get there?  Delegates are so critical, and they will come from the votes of individual voters in Puerto Rico and elsewhere.  The other reason is that Romney needs to build on his support among Latino voters, like he did in Florida.  Support from Latinos will help tremendously in November against Obama.

Romney has been forthright in his understanding and support of issues important to Puerto Rico, and Governor Fortuño has endorsed Mitt strongly.

Darkness Before the Light Comes

So imagine me sitting at home tonight, trying (with limited success) to get some work done, while keeping my eye on my alma mater BYU's first game of March Madness as well as the Mississippi and Alabama primary results.  Imagine my mood as BYU went down early by 25 points to Iona with the Gaels looking like world beaters and my Cougars looking...well, sort of ridiculous.  At the same time, I see the returns from the South become increasingly clear that Santorum was going to win both states, and Romney likely to come in a close third in both.  Despair?  Not quite, but not all that far off either.

Fast forward an hour.  BYU stops turning the ball over, settles down on defense, starts getting the ball where they like to get it and the shots started falling.  The comeback was not an instant rush and there were some reverses.  But the Cougs had time on the clock, and they kept at it and did the job, winning an amazing comeback win by 6 points and moving on in the tournament - the biggest comeback in NCAA Tournament history.

About the same time, I start looking closer at the actual delegate estimates from the night.  In Mississippi, CNN lists 13 delegates for Santorum, and 12 each for Romney.  In Alabama, Santorum has 19 delegates, with Romney and Gingrich 9 each.  Doesn't look quite so bad.  That's 10 more delegates for Santorum than for Romney in the two states.  But that's before Hawai'i and American Samoa complete their voting in the Pacific, which has proven to be a great stronghold for Romney so far.  Hawai'i will add 20 delegates, and Samoa 9 more.  I think there is an excellent chance that Romney will come out of today with the most delegates on the night.  And THAT would be a miraculous comeback.

All the more amazing when you consider the real story in terms of who will win the nomination: we are about half way through the path to the nomination, which means there become fewer and fewer states for Santorum to try to get anywhere close to the number needed to win the nomination.  Which means the path for Romney only looks better and stronger.  Romney should end the night somewhere close to 500 delegates, which is closing in on half the delegates needed to be the nominee.  And of the states remaining to vote, there are only a few winner-takes-all states left...those become the big prizes.  And every one of them looks solid/likely for Romney.  The rest of the states seem to still have an edge for Romney as well.  Total all that up, and I still don't know how Santorum really justifies his path and thinks he can win an above-board nomination.

So, take heart...the Cougars came back and won.  I believe things are going to be looking better for Mitt as well.

UPDATE: American Samoa's 9 votes go to Romney, CNN reports.  That puts Romney back within 1 delegate of Santorum on the night.  Early results from Hawaii looking favorable.  

UPDATE2: Romney wins Hawaii 45% to 25% for Santorum.  Haven't seen final breakdown of delegates updated yet, but this is huge.  Again, it means Romney will have earned more delegates on the night than Santorum, despite S'rum's wins in the South.  

UPDATE3: By my totals, this means Romney has won more states than all his rivals combined (15 states + 4 territories for Romney, 12 states + 0 territories for the others), more delegates than the others combined (if we give the Hawaii delegates to Romney we should be at about 506 for Romney and about 439 for the others combined), and Romney has about 40% of the total votes cast, more than 50% ahead of his nearest competitor, Santorum.  But the media, of course, is going to talk up Santorum (so is the Obama administration, by the way).  

Sweet Home Alabama

An excerpt here from a nice article where Randy Owen - leader of the band Alabama - voices his sincere support for Romney:

BIRMINGHAM, Alabama -- Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, whose appeal to conservative, evangelical Deep South voters has been wanting, came to Birmingham on Friday and brought with him somebody who speaks and sings southern.

Randy Owen, leader of the legendary group Alabama, put his southern country roots stamp of approval on the Michigan-born former Massachusetts governor.

"I hope this state is listening to me," Owen said Friday to a packed crowd at Thompson Tractor as he introduced Romney. "I travel all across America playing country music for guys like me, working-class people who grew up poor. . And what I want you to know is that I love this man. I love his family. I love what he stands for."

And from another article describing a rally and support from Southern comedian, Jeff Foxworthy:

Romney, accompanied Monday by comedian Jeff Foxworthy, told a rain-soaked audience in Mobile that he offered the party its best shot at defeating President Barack Obama.

"This president has done almost everything wrong," he said from the restaurants front porch. "This guy is out of ideas, and he's out of excuses, and in 2012, were going to make sure he's out of office."...Foxworthy, a Georgia native, said Romney has the experience needed to get the U.S. economy back on track.

"I avoided politics for 53 years," he said. I don't like politics, I don't like big government. But I do love this country...Mitt Romney is the guy with the best chance to beat Obama and take this country back."

Santorum/Gingrich Desperation

I think accusations of "lying" in politics are generally thrown around way too easily, but let me just say a couple of things about what Santorum and Gingrich have been saying the past day or two.

First Gingrich: he's been saying that - to paraphrase - Romney has not been winning the conservative vote and that this shows what a weak candidate he is for Republicans.  I'm sorry, but I've been following exit polls really closely throughout this process, and that is simply not true.  Romney has been getting more support from conservatives than any other candidate.  The only exception is if you carve out a subset of conservatives - specifically RURAL, EVANGELICAL, "VERY CONSERVATIVE" voters.  But that subset, while not insignificant, is hardly any kind of majority, and looking forward to the general election in November, they will be an even smaller slice of the electorate.  So, come on, Newt...get it straight.

Then Santorum.  The best I can describe what he's been saying is either 'name calling' towards Mitt, or 'magical thinking' in which he tries to obfuscate the delegate math and numbers and try to claim he has as good a chance or better than Mitt to get the nomination.  That would only be true if literally EVERYTHING goes his way and NOTHING goes Mitt's way, AND the Republican Party powers connive to make him the nominee.  Such a path is not only extremely unlikely, but would be the worst possible way I could imagine choosing a nominee to go against Barack Obama.  Seriously...consider a scenario in which Romney has more delegates than anyone else, but some back room deal consolidates everything else on behalf of Santorum.  You think that would go over well?  It's a dangerous fantasy dream by Santorum, in my opinion.

Oh, and when you hear either of these two talk about Romney as a "weak frontrunner," remind yourself how much weaker they are as candidates compared with Romney by any measure and ask yourself what they are saying about themselves.  Just sayin'.

Let's keep our eye on the ball.  Tomorrow represents a chance for Romney to get critical support in the South and nothing could be better for increasing our chances to oust Obama from the White House.

Look at the evidence below of Mitt's strength in the newest polls:

KS v. Wyo & Territories

Kansas ran caucuses rather than a primary vote, which given Kansas demographics was a perfect setup to give Santorum an advantage and he did win most of the KS delegates.  And yet...we again see Romney's genius for organization and wise use of resources.  By winning additional delegates in Wyoming, plus wins in all the U.S. territories, Romney ended up winning more delegates than Santorum won in Kansas - I believe it's 35 for Santorum and 39 for Romney.

That's very well done by Romney.  Now he needs some help from Alabamians and Mississippians here in a couple of days.  I'm telling you, if our Southern boys and gals can pull this off for Mitt, it will carry forward and make a huge difference.

And the Marianas

I'm beginning to feel all tropical inside...and very happy to be seeing this support from American territories in the Pacific.  The Northern Marianas 9 delegates have been awarded to Romney by voters there as well...here is Mitt's press release on this win:

“The Northern Mariana Islands may be far away from the mainland, but one of the great things about our democracy is that every voice has a chance to be heard in selecting a presidential candidate. Now the voters of the Northern Mariana Islands—nearly 8,000 miles from Washington, D.C.—have spoken.  And what they’ve said today is that they want to bring change to their beautiful islands by bringing change to our nation’s capital.  My son Matt told me about his visit to Saipan and the warm reception he received, and I am honored and delighted to have the support of all nine of the CNMI’s delegates.”

Governor Benigno Fitial is the Republican party head in the Marianas and is quoted as saying:

“I encourage the hundreds of thousands of Pacific Islanders living in the Continental U.S. to follow our lead and please support Governor Mitt Romney in the coming months.” 

Guam

Romney has won all nine delegates from Guam...very nice and in a race where every delegate makes a difference...

Here is Mitt's statement about the win:

“I am grateful to have won all nine delegates in Guam, and I am pleased that my son Matt was able to visit the island on my behalf and be there for the caucuses. The people of Guam have always stood bravely for America and the values we hold dear. Today we stand together in our efforts to secure the future that this nation deserves. I am honored to have won the Guam caucuses, an important milestone in my quest to restore America to the principles and practices that made us great.”

Grits, Yes, But No Sugar Please

Southerners are taking a look at Mitt right now and they are having a mutual get-to-know-you.  It seems that Mitt is gaining some traction in Mississippi and Alabama, though he's still the underdog.  This is a fun blog entry about the former governor of Mississippi's recommendation of Romney - the current governor has also endorsed Mitt.  Let's work hard these next few days...

Encouragement

I am seeing some reasons for encouragement as we move into this critical stage of the Republican primaries.

First, check out this note on Hawaii.  Romney has organization and support there which the other candidates do not appear to have.

Second, Romney's superior organization appears to be helping him in terms of encouraging early voting for him, which is a wise approach...again showing how intelligent Mitt is in terms of organization (a key reason to anticipate him being an excellent and effective president).

Third, the last two national polls show Mitt up 12-14 points over Santorum, and near the 40% level.  And that's before what I expect to be some kind of a bump up for Romney based on Super Tuesday results.  This is right at the highest numbers of any Republican candidate throughout this process.

And finally, Real Clear Politics shows polls in the past two days revealing: Mitt with a 15 point lead in New York, a 9 point lead in Alabama (yeah!) - though another poll in Bama showed Santorum up 4, it was done a week ago whereas the 9 point lead was polled from 3/1 to 3/6 - so still a good sign for Romney - and a 6 point lead in California.  I'm surprised we haven't seen a poll in Kansas yet, but maybe that's coming.

The signs of strength in Alabama I consider particularly important.  Here's to hoping my adopted second state will come through for Mitt next week!

Republican Reality Check

I have to admit I'm getting a little fed up with the post-super-tuesday blather of the media.  It came to a point for me this morning listening to Joe Scarborough talk about how unsettled everything is, how Romney "can't close the deal" - all the usual stuff we've been hearing for months, but then he feels to add that he thinks that rather than encourage candidate(s) still in the race to consider dropping out at this point, the Republican Party should try to get some new candidate to jump in to the race still at this point!  Wow.

OK...a little reality check here, folks.  First, let's consider the basic options for Republicans at this point:

(1) We continue this split, pitched battle, everyone trying to tear down "the other guy" and in particular everyone but Mitt trying to tear down Mitt to try to gain an advantage.  This path still seems likely, and has a good chance of taking this primary battle all the way to May or June or even to the nominating convention in Florida.  And yet at the end, Romney is still very likely to win, albeit in a weakened state due to the constant digs and attacks at him by fellow Republicans.
(2) One or more current candidates drop out of the race at this point.  Start with Ron Paul...I think he should consider getting out as he has won no state after 20+ state votes.  That said, he has his own agenda and I think there's very little chance of him dropping out.  Then Gingrich...I think there is the strongest case for him to drop out, since he has won only his home state and one neighboring state in 20+ contests.  I don't know why he wouldn't drop out, other than his massive ego.  But, never, never underestimate the ego of Newt Gingrich.  Then there's Santorum.  On the one hand, he has the strongest case to make in terms of not dropping out, however...it's already been shown that he has little to no chance of accumulating the number of delegates needed to win the nomination.  He has shown a strong but limited "base" of voters which he has been unable to expand from, and which would lead him to be extremely vulnerable against Obama even if he were the nominee.  And, he has shown himself and his campaign to be amazingly inept in terms of basic organization, including not even getting on the ballot in some states and districts within states, etc.  If Gingrich dropped out, then Santorum at least could claim a chance to start increasing his delegate take (though Romney would as well) and continue for now.
(3) We continue the contest, but with conservative activists, media, and voters generally starting to give stronger support and rationale and defense to Romney, allowing him a better chance to make his arguments and his connection to voters, strengthening him along the way to the nomination.
(4) Some 'new guy' enters the race, as Scarborough suggested.  This would be utter disaster.  For one thing, just as only Romney still has the mathematical possibility of achieving the 1,144 delegates needed to win the nomination, a 'new guy' would not have a chance to go back to the 20+ states who have already voted to get delegates.  They also could not legally get on most state ballots going forward.  Thus, they would have no chance to get enough delegates to win.  So, their only chance would be for party leaders to secretly work things behind closed doors to twist or change the rules, etc. to try to force the way for the 'new guy.'  Talk about chaos.  You really think Republicans and voters generally would not react negatively to those kind of tactics?  Ridiculous.  This is the stupidest idea I've heard.  And I used to think Scarborough was reasonably intelligent.  Whoops.

Also keep in mind one other key fact: Republican party people, not Romney or the other candidates, are more to blame for the current situation.  They are the ones who decided to push the state Republican parties to make their choice of delegates proportional to the vote, rather than "winner-takes-all."  I'm not saying there's not some appeal to doing it this way, but recognize the impact of it for what it is.  If these rules had applied in 2008, I am certain that John McCain would have had the same kind of fight on his hands against Romney and Huckabee going all the way to the convention.  The different rules this year are what's making it harder for Mitt.  Not to say he can't do better connecting to...specifically...'very conservative, rural, Evangelical voters' and also to some degree to lower income 'blue collar' workers.  But that is a challenge that can be met.  The rules of the primary process are something Romney can't control or change...but it has to be handled the best way possible, and the difficult challenge created by the party rules this years compared with previous elections should be recognized, I would think, by pundits and media and bloggers.

Still, as they say 'it is what it is' and Romney and Republicans generally should have a clear idea of what they are facing and the path forward.  To me there's no question that for conservatives/Republicans, this is the time to work out our strongest support of Mitt Romney.  Leave the other candidates to determine their own fates.  If Romney starts to get more and more support, the other candidates will see the writing on the wall.  That, in turn, will allow Romney to finally get over the top in terms of delegates and support.  Then we can unite and turn our energized attention to beating Barack Obama.  And that goal is worth our every effort.

Delegate Math

Given that most state primaries to come give out delegates proportional to vote totals, and that the few winner-take-all contests left are in areas of Romney strength, it becomes nearly impossible for him not to win the nomination at this point.  Begs the question of what, exactly, Santorum and Gingrich think they are accomplishing by staying in the race.

All we know is...we need to keep our shoulder to the wheel and push for more momentum.  Let's go Kansas on Saturday!

By the way...what in the world is CNN doing using this particular photo of Romney?  Sheesh.  Come on, CNN...a little professionalism, please.  Just sayin'...

SUPER Tuesday for Romney

Super Tuesday could have turned out a little better for Mitt, but not by much.  It was a very good day for Governor Romney.  Consider:

- Romney wins Ohio, Virginia, Massachusetts, Vermont, Idaho, and Alaska.
- Of his opponents, Gingrich wins ONLY Georgia, and Santorum, who had the second best night, wins Tennessee, Oklahoma, and North Dakota.
- But critically, Romney was second place in every state he did not win, with the exception of North Dakota, where he was a close third behind Ron Paul.  Those second place finishes matter for a couple of reasons: (1) it leads to more delegates for him, and (2) it means that even if some voters are still trying to decide on their support for Mitt, he is at the upper end of their consideration.
- There is concern about how Romney can do in the South.  Given he did not win in Georgia and Tennessee, that is still a valid concern.  However, the fact that Gingrich and Santorum split these two states and that Romney was second place in both states, means that neither Gingrich nor Santorum is likely to consolidate strength in the South.  More importantly to me, it means that many in the South are warming to Romney.  As I consider the South a second home due to having lived in Alabama for several years, that means a lot to me and I hope to see that trend continue (I hope quickly!).
- At this point, the delegate counts matter a lot, and Mitt Romney got significantly more than half the delegates available this day, and more than twice as many as any of his opponents.  Romney is getting close to a third of the way to the number of delegates needed to win the nomination, and is significantly more than double the delegates that Santorum has - in fact, Mitt has more delegates now than all of his opponents combined!
- No matter how the media tries to spin it, the fact is that just a week ago, Santorum was up in the neighborhood of 15-20 points in Ohio, and just that fast Romney stormed the state and won.

The campaign for the nomination is not over, but it becomes increasingly bleak for Romney's opponents, and increasingly confident for Romney in the race to the nomination.  Kansas is up next and is a significant test for Team Romney.  Haven't seen polls there but I assume the terrain is more like Oklahoma, which Santorum won by about 5 points.  Encourage your friends in Kansas to vote Romney this Saturday!

Happy Warriors

I love this photo of Mitt and Ann Romney on the campaign trail today in Youngstown, Ohio.  There has to be loads of pressure and fatigue at this point with all the campaigning done so far and Super Tuesday primaries tomorrow, but you can tell these are happy warriors in the campaign battle.  I appreciate that and think it says a lot about the character and personalities of both of them.  Everyone in these Super Tuesday states: get out there are support Mitt tomorrow!  Could be a big day...sure hope it is.  

Washington...

Romney wins Washington tonight by double digits...a great and important win.  Could it be that Washington just gave Romney the wind in the sails to send him on his way to the nomination and then even, well, to Washington (DC)?  Time will tell but this was a big deal.  Let's see what we can accomplish on Super Tuesday, which is coming up here in 3 days.  Great job, Mitt!  Hats off to the Republican voters in Washington state tonight.

Celebrate and hear Ann Romney talk about her husband in this great video:

Get Acquainted with Ann Romney

You should watch this...

Gallup and Rasmussen

The most recent Gallup and Rasmussen national polls on the Republican race have Governor Romney up by 11 and 16 points, respectively.  It's a good sign of momentum.  Also saw a just-done poll in Washington state...close, but it did have Romney with a 5 point lead.  Hopefully Romney supporters in that state will get out in force to caucus tomorrow.  It you have friends there, encourage them to vote tomorrow.  It's all about actual votes on election days, folks.

Idaho Enthusiasm

I love this article about the intense enthusiasm Romney is generating in Idaho as he campaigns there ahead of Super Tuesday.  Heard Romney was also in North Dakota today talking energy production at a rally.  Not sure if he was in Ohio today...I know he was yesterday.  Maybe Washington tomorrow ahead of their caucus vote on Saturday?

Wyo for Mitt

With all the complicated differences between the various primary and caucus rules in each state, it's hard to keep track, but the Wyoming caucuses held county by county just concluded, and Romney won, with Santorum second.  Read the results here.  Good news!  Washington state holds caucuses next on Saturday.  Let's keep it rollin'...