The Rational Vote, Part 2

I'm not entirely sure how accurately I perceive the various fracture lines in the conservative coalition in the past few years, but let me take a stab at it.

First, we have a historical problem, which is that - for various reasons, mostly political - Republicans in Congress haven't been much better than Democrats at preventing the growth of government and the expansion of the federal bureaucracy.  So there's some latent hostility towards what is perceived as the "Republican elite" - and I would say it rubs off on most of the Republicans in the Senate and some in the House.  It's hard to find a known name in the Republican field that is not to some degree tainted by this, and it has affected enthusiasm for some of the candidates.

Then, there is the length and cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan [disclaimer: I did and do support our purposes in going into these conflicts, and while we've made some mistakes in the execution of them, I support the troops and realize how complex the environments we have been operating in there].  Some war weariness - understandable - has undercut some of the usual enthusiasm and agreement on foreign policy and military matters.

Perhaps the most volatile and problematic issue is on social issues.  Not that there are significant divisions on policy - that's the funny thing about it.  This is where it gets tricky.  Because these tend to be "close to the heart issues" it sometimes devolves into "identification politics" where a candidate's church affiliation, their accent and manner of speech and language, even their choice of clothing or hair styles, seems to make groups feel "more comfortable" or "less comfortable" with a candidate.

There are other issues from immigration to tax policy and other issues, where there are disagreements.

How do these affect Romney?  Social conservatives hear various claims as to his credentials and history on some policy issues.  They see a northeast politician (making him suspect from the get go in some conservative voter eyes) who established his political credentials in liberal Massachusetts with a mix of moderate and conservative positions.  And, of course, he's Mormon.  That, and a generally fractured conservative coalition, has made it hard for any candidate - including Romney - to create strong momentum and overwhelming support.

What can be done?  There are times where I have my doubts, but I still believe once we get to convention and a nominee is selected, the desire to get Obama out of the White House will kick into gear and it will be a fight down to the wire.  I think the conservative groups will mute their criticisms then and work to get Obama out and the Republican in.

What will be interesting is if we succeed...will those same fractures reappear and make it hard for the new president to succeed and maintain the necessary support?  Time will tell.  But it gives even more impetus to Romney and team to build strong bonds with all these elements and invite them to understand the balance needed to keep everyone in the big tent, which is necessary to the goals of all types of conservatives.

When I hear Romney criticized as "say anything, do anything to get elected," I think first off it's ridiculous because he's not pushing liberal policies and has been consistent in the conservative policy proposals developed in the run of this presidential campaign.  That said, what I think people might be reacting to is simply the effort Romney is making to speak to and bind these various types of conservatives as well as independents/moderates that are needed in the coalition in order to beat Obama.  Romney's challenge is to let all conservatives know that he does hold conservative policies and instincts and should be trusted by them.

United we stand, divided we fall.  So if you, or any of your friends, are aggressively attacking and deepening these divisions on the conservative side, here's an invitation to hold off.  Let's work together and gain confidence in one another.  Romney's win at CPAC before the weekend was good to help reinforce his credentials among conservatives.  His strength continues to be the west and the northeast, and in Florida.  I'm anxious for the South and the Midwest to join the ranks in a stronger way, and give Romney the boost he needs to represent all areas of the country for Republicans.