OK, So Let's Look @ Romney v Santorum

Let me start off by saying that Santorum would be my second choice after Romney in this campaign.  He has an at-times compelling personality and understands conservatism - at least, social conservatism - well. I think overall, he's capable and a good candidate.

That said, Santorum has not been heavily vetted, and we need to learn a lot more about him quickly.  He's given himself some momentum again after yesterday; but he had that after Iowa as well and it didn't go very far.

Here's a problem with Santorum: his emotional appeal lies in a rather narrow band of voters - mostly evangelical and similar very conservative social/religiously motivated voters.  This is a good and important group, and it's large enough to win small Republican caucuses in certain states, like they did yesterday.  But they are not nearly a big enough group to win a national presidential election against Obama.  On his emotional appeal/approach, read this article arguing that Romney has the temperament most like Reagan, whereas Santorum clearly does not.  It's a good read.  This article by Charlotte Hays, makes a similar point on Santorum's narrow appeal in a general election.

Another problem with Santorum: although most voters (and media) tend to think that media headlines and a perhaps surprising win or two (or three) predict how things will go in these elections, the fact is that breadth and depth and discipline of organization across the nation - as well as the resources to run a national campaign - still matter a very great deal.  This is true not only for the Republican primaries but even more so in the national campaign against the Obama machine.  Santorum has so far produced very limited organization and very limited resources.  Romney is at the other end of that spectrum, with the most developed and disciplined organization and the resources to support it.  That is much more important - and difficult to achieve - than many may realize.

There are other issues to be looked at.  One that Mitt mentioned in his speech last night that I think is important...all the remaining candidates made their fame in Washington DC except for Romney himself.  Romney's fame and success have been built in private business, in the Salt Lake Winter Olympics, as governor of Massachusetts, as a family man and dedicated member of his faith, and for his more recent years campaigning on the national stage.  Nothing from Washington DC itself.  Want someone that can take a new perspective and help change DC from all its dysfunction?  Mitt's the man.

So yes, let's take a very close look...