Let the Battle Begin!

It's time, now that we've started seeing actual votes counted in the 2012 election cycle, to dedicate more attention and effort to the critical campaign battles ahead.

First, let's take a broad view of the field.  Barack Obama has been an astounding failure in most areas of his administration.  Take a look at his promises not only in the election cycle of 2008 but during the economic and fiscal policy battles of 2009-2011.  Then take a look at reality.  Unfortunately, our nation and our trajectory have been significantly worse off than his rosy forecasts.  Even more unfortunately, the president's policies have often made things much worse than they needed to be.

The Republicans are still working out a candidate field and a nomination process that has been very unusual, at least in my political lifetime and awareness.  Some in the media seem convinced that the difficulty among Republicans in falling in line strongly behind one candidate is a sign of weakness and lack of enthusiasm.  I don't believe that's the case.  The perceived lack of enthusiasm I see as simply different subgroups of Republicans and independents mulling over options, perhaps hoping for the "perfect candidate" but aware that we will have to pick among the good, there not being a "perfect."  At some point, there will be a coalescing effect, and then the perception of enthusiasm will pick up notably.  So, don't be fooled that way.  A whole lot of people are anxious to move away from the Obama path and back to a hopeful America, a stronger and growing economy, and a move away from the brink of financial disaster where Obama and his policies have taken us.

A couple of comments about the results of the Iowa caucuses last night.  First, it is an important first mini-step for Mitt Romney.  Second, it gives some legitimacy to Rick Santorum - though that should not be confused with any kind of certainty that he will show this well anywhere else.  Third, it shows that Ron Paul will not win the nomination, but that smart Republican candidates will at least try to learn from his appeal to young voters with libertarian tendencies, and see what can be done to build connections with this group of voters as part of the Republican coalition seeking to replace Obama.  Fourth, the other candidates in my opinion have no chance to win the nomination, and they should use good sense and judgment in terms of the kinds of attacks they use on fellow Republicans.  They can only do harm, but little to no good, if they undercut the eventual nominee.  That's not to say they can't make criticisms and comparisons - that part of the process can make the eventually nominee stronger, more vetted.  But they should, in my opinion, be fair and reasonable as they do so - otherwise they may unfairly tag their nominee with unnecessary baggage in the minds of voters needed to win in November.

Forget the often repeated talk about Romney having a "national ceiling around 25% support" as that is a misleading, even false view.  Romney has that 25% as a floor or base.  Does it need to expand?  Certainly. But that's what will naturally start to happen as the overcrowded Republican field starts to narrow.  In national polls against Obama recently, they have Romney beating Obama in a theoretical race by as much as 5-6 points.  THAT is more like the support we would start to see in the polls if Romney starts to move toward the nomination.  Compare that to Ron Paul, who despite a strong showing in Iowa shows all the signs of having that be his high water mark.  No, Republican voters are not yet settled on Romney, but they are increasingly more comfortable and familiar with him, and if he continues strong that attachment will strengthen and grow.  It will need to if we want Obama replaced.

Much more to come on positions and comparisons.  One week to New Hampshire, people!  Let's start paying close attention...