Super Tuesday could have turned out a little better for Mitt, but not by much. It was a very good day for Governor Romney. Consider:
- Romney wins Ohio, Virginia, Massachusetts, Vermont, Idaho, and Alaska.
- Of his opponents, Gingrich wins ONLY Georgia, and Santorum, who had the second best night, wins Tennessee, Oklahoma, and North Dakota.
- But critically, Romney was second place in every state he did not win, with the exception of North Dakota, where he was a close third behind Ron Paul. Those second place finishes matter for a couple of reasons: (1) it leads to more delegates for him, and (2) it means that even if some voters are still trying to decide on their support for Mitt, he is at the upper end of their consideration.
- There is concern about how Romney can do in the South. Given he did not win in Georgia and Tennessee, that is still a valid concern. However, the fact that Gingrich and Santorum split these two states and that Romney was second place in both states, means that neither Gingrich nor Santorum is likely to consolidate strength in the South. More importantly to me, it means that many in the South are warming to Romney. As I consider the South a second home due to having lived in Alabama for several years, that means a lot to me and I hope to see that trend continue (I hope quickly!).
- At this point, the delegate counts matter a lot, and Mitt Romney got significantly more than half the delegates available this day, and more than twice as many as any of his opponents. Romney is getting close to a third of the way to the number of delegates needed to win the nomination, and is significantly more than double the delegates that Santorum has - in fact, Mitt has more delegates now than all of his opponents combined!
- No matter how the media tries to spin it, the fact is that just a week ago, Santorum was up in the neighborhood of 15-20 points in Ohio, and just that fast Romney stormed the state and won.
The campaign for the nomination is not over, but it becomes increasingly bleak for Romney's opponents, and increasingly confident for Romney in the race to the nomination. Kansas is up next and is a significant test for Team Romney. Haven't seen polls there but I assume the terrain is more like Oklahoma, which Santorum won by about 5 points. Encourage your friends in Kansas to vote Romney this Saturday!
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