I have to admit I'm getting a little fed up with the post-super-tuesday blather of the media. It came to a point for me this morning listening to Joe Scarborough talk about how unsettled everything is, how Romney "can't close the deal" - all the usual stuff we've been hearing for months, but then he feels to add that he thinks that rather than encourage candidate(s) still in the race to consider dropping out at this point, the Republican Party should try to get some new candidate to jump
in to the race still at this point! Wow.
OK...a little reality check here, folks. First, let's consider the basic options for Republicans at this point:
(1) We continue this split, pitched battle, everyone trying to tear down "the other guy" and in particular everyone but Mitt trying to tear down Mitt to try to gain an advantage. This path still seems likely, and has a good chance of taking this primary battle all the way to May or June or even to the nominating convention in Florida. And yet at the end, Romney is still very likely to win, albeit in a weakened state due to the constant digs and attacks at him by fellow Republicans.
(2) One or more current candidates drop out of the race at this point. Start with Ron Paul...I think he should consider getting out as he has won no state after 20+ state votes. That said, he has his own agenda and I think there's very little chance of him dropping out. Then Gingrich...I think there is the strongest case for him to drop out, since he has won only his home state and one neighboring state in 20+ contests. I don't know why he wouldn't drop out, other than his massive ego. But, never, never underestimate the ego of Newt Gingrich. Then there's Santorum. On the one hand, he has the strongest case to make in terms of not dropping out, however...it's already been shown that he has little to no chance of accumulating the number of delegates needed to win the nomination. He has shown a strong but limited "base" of voters which he has been unable to expand from, and which would lead him to be extremely vulnerable against Obama even if he were the nominee. And, he has shown himself and his campaign to be amazingly inept in terms of basic organization, including not even getting on the ballot in some states and districts within states, etc. If Gingrich dropped out, then Santorum at least could claim a chance to start increasing his delegate take (though Romney would as well) and continue for now.
(3) We continue the contest, but with conservative activists, media, and voters generally starting to give stronger support and rationale and defense to Romney, allowing him a better chance to make his arguments and his connection to voters, strengthening him along the way to the nomination.
(4) Some 'new guy' enters the race, as Scarborough suggested. This would be utter disaster. For one thing, just as only Romney still has the mathematical possibility of achieving the 1,144 delegates needed to win the nomination, a 'new guy' would not have a chance to go back to the 20+ states who have already voted to get delegates. They also could not legally get on most state ballots going forward. Thus, they would have no chance to get enough delegates to win. So, their only chance would be for party leaders to secretly work things behind closed doors to twist or change the rules, etc. to try to force the way for the 'new guy.' Talk about chaos. You really think Republicans and voters generally would not react negatively to those kind of tactics? Ridiculous. This is the stupidest idea I've heard. And I used to think Scarborough was reasonably intelligent. Whoops.
Also keep in mind one other key fact:
Republican party people, not Romney or the other candidates, are more to blame for the current situation. They are the ones who decided to push the state Republican parties to make their choice of delegates proportional to the vote, rather than "winner-takes-all." I'm not saying there's not some appeal to doing it this way, but recognize the impact of it for what it is. If these rules had applied in 2008, I am certain that John McCain would have had the same kind of fight on his hands against Romney and Huckabee going all the way to the convention.
The different rules this year are what's making it harder for Mitt. Not to say he can't do better connecting to...specifically...'very conservative, rural, Evangelical voters' and also to some degree to lower income 'blue collar' workers. But that is a challenge that can be met. The rules of the primary process are something Romney can't control or change...but it has to be handled the best way possible, and the difficult challenge created by the party rules this years compared with previous elections should be recognized, I would think, by pundits and media and bloggers.
Still, as they say 'it is what it is' and Romney and Republicans generally should have a clear idea of what they are facing and the path forward. To me there's no question that for conservatives/Republicans, this is the time to work out our strongest support of Mitt Romney. Leave the other candidates to determine their own fates. If Romney starts to get more and more support, the other candidates will see the writing on the wall. That, in turn, will allow Romney to finally get over the top in terms of delegates and support. Then we can unite and turn our energized attention to beating Barack Obama.
And that goal is worth our every effort.